I’m becoming deeply upset at the number of commentators who are taking the succession threat seriously. There is no meaningful succession movement in Alberta. Even with the most generous polling question the “support” barely breaks 20%. With more realistic polling questions it’s barely double digits. If things got serious it’s clear that most of that support would vanish
I think there’s probably more people that genuinely believe in Bigfoot than actual separation
Right now the biggest driver of the separation narrative is the media who are treating it as a genuine movement, rather than a small minority of cranks
Why is all the coverage approaching this from the framing of a genuine movement? Why isn’t the framing questioning why such a small number of kooks seem to have so much influence with Smith? Or investigating the obvious foreign funding and influence? Or questioning why such a large amount of the population are are clearly uninformed about basic facts?
May as well treat Queen Romana of Canada’s claims as serious
The Stelmach royalty review is a good reminder of why the separatist movement needs to be taken seriously (and crushed firmly and decisively). Albertans as a group are almost trivially easy to be herded into acting against their own interests. Their inability to suspend a need to self-identify as "conservative" and their belief that prosperity only comes from maintaining the benevolent good will of the oil & gas industry makes Albertans (as a group) easy marks for manipulation by those who have the money to mount a campaign.
Agreed. I remember the royalty review. The fact that industry, as a whole, had no say given the complexity of the issue but had practically every Albertan jumping on the band wagon yelling 'I want my fair share'. What a useless endeavour that was.
I, wholeheartedly agree that Albertans continue to be the whipping girl/boy of the oil and gas industry. Municipalities are owed $250MM dollars by defunct O&G companies not paying their taxes yet the rural folk line up to vote blue, every single time. I realize they don't want the goose that laid the golden egg to take the egg away but yes, they're are too easily swayed by (largely) American hedge fund owned companies that may not exactly have the best interests of Albertans in mind.
However having said that, I'm sure that the C-Suites are not happy with Ms. Smith continuing to stoke the separatism flames (she is, don't kid yourselves) when they are trying to find capital for projects here. Glad that execs sat down with Carney last weekend without Ms. Smith at the table.
Where this goes, I don't know. But I will fight tooth and nail against the separatists in the province that have no idea what separation would really entail. It's all streets paved with gold, ATM's spewing cash out to the masses, butterflies, and unicorns as far as they are concerned.
As usual, Jarod makes some good points. I’m old enough to remember the Quebec referenda and the hand wringing and anxiety it brought. I also remember the resentment channeled towards Quebecers in general, some of it that lingers today. Do separatists really think that any Albertan will be welcome in any part of Canada? Many Canadians already see Albertans as rich entitled whiners. As Albertans, we need to realize that we have probably the highest per capita income in North America. To tell Canadians we want more seems petty and selfish.
If Albertans are getting a raw deal anywhere, we need look only at the string of conservative governments who have gradually ceded much of our wealth and democracy to the oil and gas industry. Over time, Albertans have seen diminished royalties and mounting liabilities as our past governments have been effectively captured by those special interests. Case in point Danielle Smith’s former job as a oil lobbyist prior to her rise to Premier, and the fact that the head of the supposed arms-length regulator works out of her office. The number of people employed by the industry has dropped precipitously as oil and gas has automated.
Separatists, like the Magas to the south, want to harken back to a time they see as great, when young men left high school and walked around with rolls of bills in their pockets. Those days are gone and oil and gas supremacy isnt far behind and we will be left with massive liabilities.
Thank you for this Dr. Wesley. It clearly sets out some (but not all) of the extremely complex and detrimental matters that Alberta separation would generate. But it seems to me that any intelligent person thinking about this issue analytically would easily come up, certainly in general terms, with exactly what you set out. Which begs the question, why is it that presumably intelligent people are promoting this?
Some of the most strident voices promoting separation are highly educated (professionals, successful businesspeople, and yes, some academics [looking at you - Calgary School of Public Policy and Fraser Institute]). I can't see this being a case of cognitive dissonance in those separation advocates. So, while I reject the label of conspiracist, I have to wonder what the underlying agenda really is. What do they think is in it for them? Perhaps even more appropriately, what do those funding them hope to achieve?
I’m becoming deeply upset at the number of commentators who are taking the succession threat seriously. There is no meaningful succession movement in Alberta. Even with the most generous polling question the “support” barely breaks 20%. With more realistic polling questions it’s barely double digits. If things got serious it’s clear that most of that support would vanish
I think there’s probably more people that genuinely believe in Bigfoot than actual separation
Right now the biggest driver of the separation narrative is the media who are treating it as a genuine movement, rather than a small minority of cranks
Why is all the coverage approaching this from the framing of a genuine movement? Why isn’t the framing questioning why such a small number of kooks seem to have so much influence with Smith? Or investigating the obvious foreign funding and influence? Or questioning why such a large amount of the population are are clearly uninformed about basic facts?
May as well treat Queen Romana of Canada’s claims as serious
The Stelmach royalty review is a good reminder of why the separatist movement needs to be taken seriously (and crushed firmly and decisively). Albertans as a group are almost trivially easy to be herded into acting against their own interests. Their inability to suspend a need to self-identify as "conservative" and their belief that prosperity only comes from maintaining the benevolent good will of the oil & gas industry makes Albertans (as a group) easy marks for manipulation by those who have the money to mount a campaign.
Agreed. I remember the royalty review. The fact that industry, as a whole, had no say given the complexity of the issue but had practically every Albertan jumping on the band wagon yelling 'I want my fair share'. What a useless endeavour that was.
I, wholeheartedly agree that Albertans continue to be the whipping girl/boy of the oil and gas industry. Municipalities are owed $250MM dollars by defunct O&G companies not paying their taxes yet the rural folk line up to vote blue, every single time. I realize they don't want the goose that laid the golden egg to take the egg away but yes, they're are too easily swayed by (largely) American hedge fund owned companies that may not exactly have the best interests of Albertans in mind.
However having said that, I'm sure that the C-Suites are not happy with Ms. Smith continuing to stoke the separatism flames (she is, don't kid yourselves) when they are trying to find capital for projects here. Glad that execs sat down with Carney last weekend without Ms. Smith at the table.
Where this goes, I don't know. But I will fight tooth and nail against the separatists in the province that have no idea what separation would really entail. It's all streets paved with gold, ATM's spewing cash out to the masses, butterflies, and unicorns as far as they are concerned.
Thank you Ryan. You’ve covered it all sanely and truthfully. And humorously.
I can feel so much stress subsiding with
the facts.
As usual, Jarod makes some good points. I’m old enough to remember the Quebec referenda and the hand wringing and anxiety it brought. I also remember the resentment channeled towards Quebecers in general, some of it that lingers today. Do separatists really think that any Albertan will be welcome in any part of Canada? Many Canadians already see Albertans as rich entitled whiners. As Albertans, we need to realize that we have probably the highest per capita income in North America. To tell Canadians we want more seems petty and selfish.
If Albertans are getting a raw deal anywhere, we need look only at the string of conservative governments who have gradually ceded much of our wealth and democracy to the oil and gas industry. Over time, Albertans have seen diminished royalties and mounting liabilities as our past governments have been effectively captured by those special interests. Case in point Danielle Smith’s former job as a oil lobbyist prior to her rise to Premier, and the fact that the head of the supposed arms-length regulator works out of her office. The number of people employed by the industry has dropped precipitously as oil and gas has automated.
Separatists, like the Magas to the south, want to harken back to a time they see as great, when young men left high school and walked around with rolls of bills in their pockets. Those days are gone and oil and gas supremacy isnt far behind and we will be left with massive liabilities.
Dr. Jared Wesley: doing the hard work of engaging with this exhausting and dangerous nonsense, so that the rest of us don't have to.
You're a hero, man.
Thank you for this Dr. Wesley. It clearly sets out some (but not all) of the extremely complex and detrimental matters that Alberta separation would generate. But it seems to me that any intelligent person thinking about this issue analytically would easily come up, certainly in general terms, with exactly what you set out. Which begs the question, why is it that presumably intelligent people are promoting this?
Some of the most strident voices promoting separation are highly educated (professionals, successful businesspeople, and yes, some academics [looking at you - Calgary School of Public Policy and Fraser Institute]). I can't see this being a case of cognitive dissonance in those separation advocates. So, while I reject the label of conspiracist, I have to wonder what the underlying agenda really is. What do they think is in it for them? Perhaps even more appropriately, what do those funding them hope to achieve?
Or is it ideology overriding objective analysis?