A lot of pollsters and pundits have predicted the UCP will win the Alberta provincial election. I’m not into that sort of prognostication.
Polls are a “blurry snapshot” in time. And campaigns matter. Just ask the folks who wrote off the Redford PCs in 2012 or who looked foolish following Notley’s NDP victory in 2015.
I look at pre-election polls, poll aggregators, and seat projections with a lot of skepticism.
Instead, I’d like to offer my early post-dictions of the outcome of the election.
As I outline at the end of this post, I will be stepping away from public commentary throughout the writ period. So here are my thoughts on what could happen over the next few weeks.
If the NDP Wins…
…it will be because most of the fundamentals were in their favour.
Campaign success is typically measured along the following lines, all of which favoured the NDP heading into this election:
Your leader is more popular than the other leader. For the third consecutive election, Rachel Notley is running ahead of her party in terms of popularity. This time, she has a sizeable lead over her main opponent on nearly all measures of leadership (likeability, competence, compassion, strength). If the NDP wins, it will be because they made the election about leadership.
You “own” the issues that are most important to voters. As in 2015, the most important issue on the minds of Albertans is health care. And, as in 2015, the electorate trusts the NDP to handle that issue more than they trust the UCP. Other top issues, including education and affordability, also point to an NDP advantage. If the NDP wins, it will be because they made social issues a big part of the ballot question.
You have a good ground game. The NDP has spent the last four years building bases of support in Calgary, suburban communities, and small cities. This has netted them the most memberships and donations in their history, much greater name recognition for their candidates, and a much better sense of who to engage in their get-out-the-vote campaigns. If the NDP wins, it will be because they spent more time than the UCP on growing their base.
You position yourself as the inheritor of a popular legacy. A key part of the NDP strategy involves tying themselves to the Lougheed PC brand. This has included explicit references in tweets, speeches, and advertisements, and securing endorsements from prominent progressive conservatives. If the NDP wins, it will be because Albertans see them as an extension of the Lougheed brand of politics.
If the NDP loses….
…it will be because most Albertans do not view them as a viable, mainstream alternative to conservative governments.
The conditions for an NDP victory have seldom been as favourable in Alberta. While the right is not divided as it was in 2015, the NDP is facing the weakest and most internally divided governing parties in history. The NDP has a very popular leader and a talented cast of candidates.
If they do not win this time, it will be because they are swimming against deeper undercurrents in Alberta politics.
If the NDP loses, it will be because most Albertans do not view an avowedly left-leaning government as a feasible or desirable outcome of this election. This flies in the face of public opinion surveys that show Albertans are not as conservative as folks assume.
Put simply, if the NDP loses, too few Albertans would have overcome the prevailing narrative that tells us New Democrats are “accidental governments” and “un-Albertan”.
If the UCP Wins…
…it will be because their “minimum winning coalition” strategy worked.
Tom Flanagan (one of Danielle Smith’s advisors from her Wildrose days) defines MWC like this:
Politicians often speak as if they would like to get everyone’s vote, but in fact that would be counterproductive. Voters are attracted into an electoral coalition by persuasion, which includes promises of rewards. The more supporters you have, the more open hands you will face if you do win power, and the more difficulty you will have satisfying the expectations of your coalition members for favourable policies, patronage appointments, and symbolic gratification.
Alberta is not used to minimum winning coalitions. All PC governments (1971-2015) featured representation from all regions of the province. The 2015 NDP government was thin on rural representation.
Smith intends to flip the script by shoring up UCP support throughout small-town and rural Alberta and holding on to a handful of seats in Calgary.
This will mean sacrificing much of the party’s progressive conservative base in sub/urban Alberta in favour of populists, libertarians, and social conservatives outside the cities.
The UCP premier has made no secret of her rural-first strategy, “I don’t intend to try to win every vote,” she told Rick Bell in October 2022. “I recognize if I’m stretching to reach certain seats I’m probably going to lose Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre.”
If the UCP wins, it will be because they focused their attention narrowly on rural Alberta, with just enough regard paid to (South) Calgary. Discussed below, this MWC strategy might not make it as easy to govern as Flanagan suggests.
If the UCP loses…
…it will be due to a host of factors.
In particular, losing to the NDP will signal a failure to:
maintain discipline on the campaign trail,
get out the vote, and
capture the mood of the province.
Danielle Smith has a poor track record of preventing “bozo eruptions.” If the pre-campaign period is any indication, this election won’t be much different.
The premier, herself, will find it difficult to dodge questions about her penchant for fraternizing with folks facing criminal charges.
If the UCP loses, it will be because the electorate is focused on Smith’s shortcomings as a leader instead of her party’s key messages.
If the UCP loses it will be because they failed to get out the vote in key ridings in Calgary, small cities, and towns. This is a close election that will be decided by who has identified and mobilized their supporters.
If the UCP loses, it’s a sure sign that they spent too much time, money, and effort and resources on shoring up their base amid party infighting, and not enough resources on growing their base for the general election.
Beyond this, if the UCP loses, it will be because they have misread the public mood.
Most Albertans felt jilted and angry in 2019. Jason Kenney positioned himself as the guardian of Alberta’s interests, and Albertans seemed to be in the mood for a “dick” to stick up for the province on the national and international stages.
Danielle Smith has assumed this role, championing not just Alberta, but those who feel aggrieved about governments’ handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, especially supporters of the Freedom Convoy.
Our Common Ground research has revealed that few Albertans actually support(ed) the Convoy. Over time, Albertans have become less angry about their place in Confederation:
This places the UCP on the wrong side of voters when it comes to their policy flirtations like withdrawing from the Canada Pension Plan, nixing the RCMP agreement, and invoking the Sovereignty Act. If voters are thinking about any of these issues when they cast their ballots, it’s bad news for the UCP.
The UCP is also at risk of falling out of step with Alberta conservatism, perhaps relinquishing part of that ground to the NDP.
If the UCP loses, it will be because they failed to recognize most Albertans are not in the mood for populism, conflict, division, and unpredictability. They’re in the mood for boring, stable governments that get along with one another.
The Aftermath
The days and weeks following the election will be pivotal, no matter which party emerges victorious. It is imperative that representatives from both parties and all Albertans take their responsibilities to provincial unity and democracy seriously.
We all need to overcome the hyper-partisan temptations to exacerbate divisions and deny the victor the legitimacy they need to govern.
It is highly unlikely that the government emerging from this election will feature solid representation from across our province. This will make it challenging for the government to speak credibly on behalf of all Albertans when developing policy.
The opposition plays a crucial role, in this regard. Provided the government is equally willing, a more collaborative, bipartisan approach to legislative committees could be one way to bridge the regional divides.
Most worrisome, however, are warning signs that the principle of “loser’s consent” may be eroding in Alberta.
Our democracy rests on the fragile premise that everyone recognizes the result of a free and fair election. That losers concede to victors and confer on them the full legitimacy that comes with the offices they assume.
In other words, we need more gracious than sore losers. We need fewer vengeful victors than magnanimous ones. And we see people treating their opponents as adversaries to be defeated at the next election instead of enemies to be vanquished.
From shutting down hashtags like #notmypremier and #accidentalgovernment to stamping out conspiratorial lies about the integrity of the voting process, it is incumbent on all of us to put aside our personal biases and acknowledge the legitimacy of the government that will form after this election.
This does not mean failing to criticize the new government for its (in)actions. Far from it.
But it does mean avoiding the type of factional behaviour that led to democratic breakdowns in the United States and United Kingdom.
The outcome of the May 29 Alberta election will reverberate months and years afterward. It will be up to our leaders and all of us to repair the rifts that it further exposes.
Stepping Away
I am unable to provide commentary on the provincial election during the writ period (May 1 to May 29). You won’t see me here on Substack or Twitter, nor in the media.
This is because our Common Ground research team is in the field with a series of public opinion surveys during and immediately following the campaign. I feel it is unethical for academics to comment on events they are studying.
We will be back in the field with focus groups in a dozen Alberta communities this summer and fall. We will also be engaging with local leaders on a project to forge common ground in our communities.
To stay up to date on all of our Common Ground research:
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