Premier Smith is normalizing separatism

Beyond platforming and clearing institutional hurdles, she is dragging separatism into the mainstream.

Today’s court ruling appears to prevent Elections Alberta from validating signatures on the Alberta independence petition while the matter proceeds through the courts. Premier Danielle Smith says her government will appeal, a process that could delay verification for months or longer.

A separatist referendum this fall appears less likely because of these delays, but is still possible if the premier decides to do an endrun around the petition process and put a question on a ballot in October.

Photo by Sollange Brenis on Unsplash

For now, nobody outside the separatist organizers actually knows how many valid signatures were collected as part of the Stay Free Alberta petition. Elections Alberta has not been allowed to certify the totals. No investigation has been completed into the use of the stolen electors list in the petition drive.

Even so, the premier continues to cite the figure of 300,000 signatures in public statements, offering her own personal validation of the petition numbers in the absence of any independent verification.

From their provileged podiums, premiers influence which ideas appear credible, respectable, and viable. Repeating an unverified number from a separatist campaign gives the movement institutional validation at the very moment its central claim of being “mainstream” remains untested.

The premier’s comments also fit alongside a series of other decisions: lowering barriers for citizen-initiated referendums, changing petition rules in ways favourable to separatist organizers, refusing to call a public inquiry into the illegal use of the electors list...

Despite all of this, support for independence remains limited in Alberta. Our Viewpoint Alberta research finds little evidence that separatism has increased in popularity over the past 3 years. In a paper we are presenting next month, we report:

All told, separatism remains a preferred option for fewer than one-in-five Albertans. For example, when asked their opinions on a range measures to improve Alberta’s position relative to the rest of Canada, only 16 to 20 percent of respondents felt the province should “leave Canada and become its own independent country” (July 2025 to April 2026). This compared with a full 80 to 86 percent who felt “Alberta should stay in Canada and be treated the same as every other province.”

What has changed is the social acceptability surrounding the discussion. According to our parallel focus group study, conversations about separatism and independence increasingly appear less taboo, less politically risky, and more connected to ordinary provincial frustration.

While supporting separatism remains a fringe position according to polls, the idea of separatism has entered mainstream political culture in Alberta.

Brexit offers a cautionary tale of how shifts in political culture can pre-date shifts in public opinion. Long before a majority of Britons supported leaving the European Union, the idea itself became normalized through elite signalling, relentless media attention, and repeated claims that dissatisfaction with the status quo was reaching critical mass. The political culture shifted first. Electoral support followed later.

Alberta separatism has the potential to move through similar stages. Petition numbers, rally attendance, polling claims, and dramatic social media imagery are all used to create the impression of rapid growth and broad public backing. The point is not persuasion to the separatist cause. At least, not yet. It is to cultivate the sense that separatism has become an ordinary, credible political position.

The premier’s rhetoric contributes to that process. Quoting unofficial signature numbers during an unresolved legal dispute is an act of normalization. Of mainstreaming.

The premier may simply be reflecting the political consensus within her bubble. She may also be responding to a base that is threatening to oust her from power if she doesn't hold a referendum.

Genuine federalists should avoid caricaturing separatist-curious Albertans as irrational or extremist. But unverifiable claims of mass support should not go unanswered either. Unofficial petition counts should be treated as unofficial. Dubious polling should be scrutinized. Synthetic or manipulated imagery should be identified as such. Disinformation needs to be called out. And we need to start prebunking against outlandish claims of not only the benefits, but the popularity, of separatism in Alberta.

There is no risk of platforming, here, when the premier has already built them a stage.

The truth is: none of us know how many Albertans really signed the Stay Free Alberta petition. That's why we have rules that, when respected, help us to validate the claims of social movements like the separatists. And federalists and environmentalists, for that matter.

Circumventing those rules is part of a broader pattern for the Smith government, whose behaviour suggests they are committed not just to holding an independence referendum but to mainstreaming separatism in Alberta.

We all have control over what we believe, though.

When it comes to the number of signatures collected, we don't have to take Mitch Silvestre's word as fact. Particularly when he has a track record of fabrication, disinformation, and rhetorical flourishes.

We can treat the fact he claims 300,000 signatures as fact. And let independent authorities validate it.

We don't have to do the separatists work of mainstreaming for them.

And neither does the premier.